jiloarcade.blogg.se

This is from 2013 college football game data. If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.

You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Over time, I’ve come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. They stem from the work done in this post. The Five Factors are the basis for my S&P+ ratings. F/+ is a combination of the Brian Fremeau’s Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and my S&P+. The official college football ratings of record at Football Outsiders. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other lucky/unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team’s luck was particularly good or bad and might even out either in the next season or in the rest of the current one. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. What a team’s turnover margin would have been if it had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in its games, and if the INTs-to-PDs for both teams was equal to the national average, which is generally around 21-22 percent. Sack RateĪn opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates. It takes into account the factors that go into winning a given game (not simply the end result) and adjusts for the quality of opponent. Used in the team stat profiles, this is a look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. Pace takes a team’s run-pass ratio into account. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. This takes into account both a team’s tempo (in terms of seconds per play) and the type of plays it runs. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers. Line YardsĪn opponent-adjusted version of the line measure derived from the formula found here.

(Think of five-star ratings as an A+.) Adj.

It is set up so that a four-star rating is an A grade, three-star is a B grade, etc. I am sharing the actual decimal rating instead of the star rating, but the gist is that anyone above a 0.8950 is a four- or five-star, anyone above 0.7950 is a three-star, etc. The Composite rating has proven to be the most reliable from a projections standpoint, so that is what I use in the annual preview series. 247Sports catalogues both its own recruiting ratings and a composite rating compiled from a few different recruiting services.